is it a forgone conclusion...

Nick Zentena wrote:

Lets be honest. Camera companies are
spending no R&D dollars on film cameras.

Far as I can tell, film makers aren't spending much on R&D either.
When's the last time a new B&W (non c-41) film was released? P3200?

What's the most recent development in color film? The last thing I can
recall is Kodak MAX, but I honestly have never paid much attention to
color film. There are developments in disposable cameras, and they will
probably be popular until digital is cheap enough to replace them ($3
pricepoint)

They sure aren't spending any ad
money either. Shutting down those production
lines won't do them any good.

Shutting down the lines will free up capital (both money and people)
that they can use for other (read digital) purposes.

Bob

bob wrote:


Shutting down the lines will free up capital (both money and people)
that they can use for other (read digital) purposes.


To lose more money? The low end digital market is basically gone. Watch
digital cell phones wipe out that market.

Nick

Nick Zentena wrote:
bob wrote:


Shutting down the lines will free up capital (both money and people)
that they can use for other (read digital) purposes.



To lose more money? The low end digital market is basically gone. Watch
digital cell phones wipe out that market.

Nick


The plants aren't in Japan. They can layoff the workers, close the
plants, and bring the managers home. Even if the managers sit idle they
will loose less money than if they continue to pay workers to assemble
materials that there are no buyers for.

That's doubly true if they can sell the plants and some of the equipment.

I'm pretty sure there is plenty of business in producing digital cameras
in the future, even if it isn't in the low end. Maybe there's a Nikon
brand cell phone in your future ;-)

As long as they can keep working on reducing the shutter lag and
improving the ISO ratings, there will continue to be an upgrade market
in the advanced amateur category.

Bob

bob wrote:
Nick Zentena wrote:

Lets be honest. Camera companies are
spending no R&D dollars on film cameras.

Far as I can tell, film makers aren't spending much on R&D either.
When's the last time a new B&W (non c-41) film was released? P3200?

What's the most recent development in color film? The last thing I
can
recall is Kodak MAX, but I honestly have never paid much attention to

color film. There are developments in disposable cameras, and they
will
probably be popular until digital is cheap enough to replace them ($3

pricepoint)

They sure aren't spending any ad
money either. Shutting down those production
lines won't do them any good.

Shutting down the lines will free up capital (both money and people)
that they can use for other (read digital) purposes.

Bob
I hope you all don't mind the input from an interloper, I don't do
any darkroom work currently but did a fair bit of it in the early 70s.

First off let me say that I would be a bit surprise if film disappears
within the next 10 years, it might be hard to find places to process it
but my guess is that it will be around in some form.

Having said that I will also say that I don't know enough about the
film business to really know what will happen. These are a few of the
questions that I don't know the answers to, how small of an operation
can you have and still produce high quality film that is affordable?
Is the same equipment that makes print paper also used for making film
or is it another whole production line?

Since the high quality prints are using photographic print paper for
their output it is a pretty good guess that they will be producing
print paper for sometime to come. This means that at least someone
will be coating paper with photosensitive emulsions in the future, this
would seem to give film a good chance of surviving for some time to
come.

The other thing that will help keep film alive for a while is the
disposable cameras, this is the only area of film sales that has not
seen large drops in volume.

I would expect to see the number of people doing their own photographic
printing 10 years from now to be a small fraction of what it is today.


Scott

bob wrote:
Nick Zentena wrote:

Lets be honest. Camera companies are
spending no R&D dollars on film cameras.

Far as I can tell, film makers aren't spending much on R&D either.
When's the last time a new B&W (non c-41) film was released? P3200?

What's the most recent development in color film? The last thing I
can
recall is Kodak MAX, but I honestly have never paid much attention to

color film. There are developments in disposable cameras, and they
will
probably be popular until digital is cheap enough to replace them ($3

pricepoint)

They sure aren't spending any ad
money either. Shutting down those production
lines won't do them any good.

Shutting down the lines will free up capital (both money and people)
that they can use for other (read digital) purposes.

Bob
I hope you all don't mind the input from an interloper, I don't do
any darkroom work currently but did a fair bit of it in the early 70s.

First off let me say that I would be a bit surprise if film disappears
within the next 10 years, it might be hard to find places to process it
but my guess is that it will be around in some form.

Having said that I will also say that I don't know enough about the
film business to really know what will happen. These are a few of the
questions that I don't know the answers to, how small of an operation
can you have and still produce high quality film that is affordable?
Is the same equipment that makes print paper also used for making film
or is it another whole production line?

Since the high quality prints are using photographic print paper for
their output it is a pretty good guess that they will be producing
print paper for sometime to come. This means that at least someone
will be coating paper with photosensitive emulsions in the future, this
would seem to give film a good chance of surviving for some time to
come.

The other thing that will help keep film alive for a while is the
disposable cameras, this is the only area of film sales that has not
seen large drops in volume.

I would expect to see the number of people doing their own photographic
printing 10 years from now to be a small fraction of what it is today.


Scott

wrote:

First off let me say that I would be a bit surprise if film disappears
within the next 10 years, it might be hard to find places to process it
but my guess is that it will be around in some form.

I'd speculate that there will be as many, or even more people using
sheet film in 10 years as there are today. I wouldn't be surprised if
there was essentially no availability of 35mm color film. As long as
there's an Ilford, there will be B&W film. Hopefully now that the film
group is out of bankrupcy they will remain a viable company. The variety
of their product offerings will probalby continue to diminish.

The other thing that will help keep film alive for a while is the
disposable cameras, this is the only area of film sales that has not
seen large drops in volume.

I wonder what the odds of them switching disposables to APS are?

I would expect to see the number of people doing their own photographic
printing 10 years from now to be a small fraction of what it is today.

People are discarding enlargers today. That was pretty unheard of 10
years ago.

Bob

bob wrote:
....

There is no reason besides economics.

My prediction is the transition will go fairly quickly, like DVD. Thom
predicts Nikon and Canon will both have discontinued *all* 35mm cameras
by the end of the year. If consumers aren't buying film cameras, and
professionals have largely abandoned them, that leaves only the
relatively low volume of the serious amateur.

Will you still be able to get it? Sure. Just like BetaMax tapes. Sony
only discontinued production of BetaMax recording gear a year or so ago,
but in most people's minds Beta was "dead" around 1980.

Bob

Why have Nikon recently launched a top end 35mm SLR? How many film SLRs
have Canon launched recently? Who is Thom, and why does his prediction
carry so much weight?

But even if the launch of new film cameras slows down, you appear to be
confusing film cameras with film. There are still a lot of film users
out there. And economics suggests that whilst there is a market, there
will be a supplier.

Steve

bob wrote:
....

There is no reason besides economics.

My prediction is the transition will go fairly quickly, like DVD. Thom
predicts Nikon and Canon will both have discontinued *all* 35mm cameras
by the end of the year. If consumers aren't buying film cameras, and
professionals have largely abandoned them, that leaves only the
relatively low volume of the serious amateur.

Will you still be able to get it? Sure. Just like BetaMax tapes. Sony
only discontinued production of BetaMax recording gear a year or so ago,
but in most people's minds Beta was "dead" around 1980.

Bob

Why have Nikon recently launched a top end 35mm SLR? How many film SLRs
have Canon launched recently? Who is Thom, and why does his prediction
carry so much weight?

But even if the launch of new film cameras slows down, you appear to be
confusing film cameras with film. There are still a lot of film users
out there. And economics suggests that whilst there is a market, there
will be a supplier.

Steve

Nick Zentena wrote:
....
and falling average selling prices. Lets be honest. Camera companies are
spending no R&D dollars on film cameras. They sure aren't spending any ad
money either. Shutting down those production lines won't do them any good.
....
But they _are_ launching new models, and they _are_ being advertised.
You won't see these adverts in the mainstream press, but the specialist
photography press. Its the same with B&W, but that has supposedly been
dead for years.

Steve

Nick Zentena wrote:
....
and falling average selling prices. Lets be honest. Camera companies are
spending no R&D dollars on film cameras. They sure aren't spending any ad
money either. Shutting down those production lines won't do them any good.
....
But they _are_ launching new models, and they _are_ being advertised.
You won't see these adverts in the mainstream press, but the specialist
photography press. Its the same with B&W, but that has supposedly been
dead for years.

Steve