Mike Henley wrote:

Do you anticipate they'll increase depreciate or increase in value in
years to come?

I think new mechanical cameras might increase in price in the future.
This would be somewhat due to inflation, though also from limited
production. The Nikon FM3A might continue to be produced for a few more
years, though technically it could be considered an electronic camera.
That leaves Leica, and maybe Contax to continue into the future with
manual bodies, or at least manual focus.



It's understandable that their prices have dropped significantly
lately as everyone's been riding on the digital wave, but regarding
the future...

If you mean used, then it depends upon which cameras you look into. Many
of the old SLRs are now becoming more collectors items. Of course, the
collector market could change at any moment, or it could be that an
ageing population of collectors is not replacement by a younger
generation with the same interests.

As for "classic" mostly manual cameras that an enthusiast could get used,
then I think some areas might see prices fall a bit. The problem in that
type of purchase, is that service costs will likely only continue to
rise. To the old camera enthusiast, that might mean learning to do your
own repairs. It could also mean buying similar non working cameras as a
source for personal use spare parts.



Possibility A) they could increase in value

Rationale

- less will be made

Quite likely, and maybe only high end production.


- those that will be made will either be one of two... A) modern, and
those who like modern stuff will likely go digital. So, the more
likely is B) retro, and those will be too expensive as they're harder
to make at a low price (eg nikon's mechanical rangefinder)

Supposedly, Nikon claims to have lost money on the S3 2000 rangefinder
cameras. Leica had the brief and strange Serie 0 remake, though it seems
the early high price did not hold up later. Then there have been various
Voigtländer offering, arguably somewhat affordable.

With SLR choices, there are still manual focus cameras made, though fewer
mechanical shutters than in the past, at least in 35 mm. I think the
sales success (relative) of the Leica M7 points out that at least some
users might like some automation (aperture priority), and that might
point out more of a future direction.

The odd choice now is the Leica/Panasonic direct digital with somewhat
manual control, and more manual interface. This combination of high and
low tech could become somewhat popular in the future, though it is too
early to tell if they are sales successes.


- there's a current wave of everyone (mass public) converting to
digital; digital is still expensive and not good enough yet (actually,
most 5mp cameras are good enough for public right now; the resolution
of a 6mp i read about today was described as an "overkill" by the
reviewer), but sooner or lately digital will get there both in being
cheap and being good-enough, and the current stock of film cameras in
non-collector hands will slowly disappear, lost, trashed, etc, which
means that there'll be less of them, especially when...

It could be those old "collector" classics were just sitting on a shelf
collecting dust, and not being used. While it might seem that a flood of
used cameras is on EBAY, or elsewhere, when you look at some older camera
choices, the prices have not become lower. Recall that as cameras age,
they can also be prone to breaking, and broken cameras will not sell
well. The age of some cameras will self limit the used market, since
there would be less supply of good working examples.

Many in the mass public think about 3 MP is good enough, and that segment
sells very well. With camera phones soon hitting 2 or 3 MP on the mass
market, that might be another direction that takes off. I don't always
see this behaviour as similar to photography, since it is often more
about electronic communications (e-mail, picture messaging), and instant
gratification, than about recording history, or making printed photos.
Obviously, people do make prints from direct digital imaging, but they
are still the minority.

I do think the P&S film camera market will become a niche. The only
exception would be disposable one-time-use cameras, which recently saw
about a 30% sales volume increase (going from the latest Fuji and Kodak
information). There may be fewer P&S film camera choices available in the
future, and the few there are might be high priced (similar to Contax T3,
or Leica CM).


- there'll be a point in not too long where most film cameras will be
traded by either niche (film) shooters or collectors. I have seen
quite a few classic cameras lately whose sellers on ebay said that
they only found out how highly regarded and sought after they are when
they did a search for info about them to fill in the ebay description,
so i'll hypothesize that there'll be many "babies" will be gone (like
for example the three olympus RCs I've seen lately which sellers told
me they had no idea they were classic - i can only assume some won't
make it to ebay)

EBAY is definitely affecting the used camera market. I would not be
surprised if the overall used film camera sales volume on EBAY is near
what new film camera sales are now. It would also not surprise me if the
used EBAY sales exceeds new sales in the future.


- can they depreciate any more than they are right now? I would've
thought digital cameras are somewhat stabilizing, there's already far
more digital cameras on sale on ebay than film ones

Higher turnover for direct digital, since the technology changes so
quickly. Even the high end is affected by this. Compare that to a film
camera that can often deliver many years of service at a known quality
level, with film being the only variable.



OR They will depreciate

Some might, as they become less known, or less popular. Don't expect
Leica M rangefinder prices to suddenly drop, nor working Nikon F models,
nor many other popular cameras of the past.



- i can't make up a rationale for this one as i find the above likely
more persuasive, can you?

It depends upon what you want to get. The more collectable items might
just keep climbing in price. The lesser known cameras might get near
give-away prices, meaning you might find some really great gear at very
low cost. Keep watching, and shop carefully.

Ciao!

Gordon Moat
A G Studio
http://www.allgstudio.com
http://www.agstudiopro.com Coming Soon!