wrote:
Alan Browne wrote:
On 10-03-10 23:59 , Neil Gould wrote:
"Alan wrote:\

One problem with this line of reasoning is that you are
describing two
pools of photo takers.

Yes to the "two pools" notion, and the "conservators" being a much
smaller group. (I don't see that as a "problem" however).

Of course you don't, it's your position and you have repeatedly
shown
you have no intent on ever bending your position no matter how much
evidence is thrown at you. I highly doubt the "conservators" are
much
more than .1% of camera users, if even that. And of those an even
smaller % will be successful at even 100 year archival status of
digital
data.

My point was that even the conservators are unlikely to survive the
number of generations being tossed about in this thread. I don't know
of much of today's imaging media _can_ survive for that long even with
extraordinary effort, but digital media are the most vulnerable of the
lot.

This is not likely to be the same group that will generate the
large number of images you are basing your "1 in 1,000,000
surviving
images" upon. Considering the archival replication processes
necessary

Really to illustrate the vast number of photos taken that drive a
likelihood of a portion surviving.

Not a reasonable way to calculate this.

Agreed, but it's a no-brainer that this is a grossly optimistic
notion.

It's just big, big, big numbers and the survival of some of the
data.
But some small part of a really big number is still a lot.

You totally ignore that this data is MUCH more fragile than prints
or
film is. You have to physically destroy them for them to 100% fail.
Given lots of the "billions of images taken" never are even saved to
a
hard drive (most are garbage and just are deleted)the chances of a
"deluge of images" being around even 10 years from now is being
naive..
In fact MOST people predict the exact opposite, this era will be a
vacuum of images.

I fully agree with your perspective. For relatively short time
periods, such as 10-20 years, the images posted to the web are more
likely to survive than those privately held, largely because of the
extraordinary effort involved in maintaining that data. But the
economics work against long-term archiving of typical images in this
manner.

Stephanie, I think notions of archiving digital information boils down
to "some people get it, and most don't", with my clients of longer
than 10 years falling in the latter category.

--
best,

Neil



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