http://www.forbes.com/... ...kpinnacor_ii.html?partner=my_yahoo&referrer=


Interesting article. Yes, Kodak, Fuji, Ilford all continue to make money on
film, and will for years. But film is indeed dying.

It is very telling that Kodak has abandoned APS format as it became clear
that it really WASN'T going to pull people back to film cameras from
digital, and they are scaling back on film R&D. It is also important to note
that both Nikon and Canon report that digital now represents over 80% of
their photography unit sales, and growing. Nikon will release the N85 film
body (AF sensor upgrade to the N80), but that's their only new film camera,
and predictions are that that's it - no more. They have already dropped
compact 35mm camera development AND they have stopped development of film
scanners. Canon has a broader market base, so (to use Thom Hogan's metaphor)
they aren't going to scuttle that particular boat like Nikon is, they are
just going to drill a hole in the bottom of it and let it sink quietly.
Additionally, look at the other film camera companies. Minolta (now merged
with Konica to avoid bankruptcy) is on the ropes and moving into digital,
getting out of film. Same with Pentax - I bet we'll see a whole slug of
dSLRs from Pentax beyond the *ist (which is barely on the radar screen) or
they'll be dead too. Olympus has survived on digital, having deep-sixed
their film SLR line, the excellent OM series, a few years ago (very smart).

A contributing factor to Nikon's development of the N85 is not so much its
use as a film camera but as a body platform for the next round of $1500
dSLR's such as the Fuji S3 (or upgraded S2) and possibly/probably the Nikon
D200 (D100 replacement). It appeared that Nikon was letting the F6 program
slide because of the death of film, but rumors are that they have
resurrected it and will be introducing it within the year as a pro body with
the choice of multiple digital backs as well as a 35mm film back for the
holdouts, if there are any left by the time it's introduced. At least the
success of such a camera doesn't hinge on the future of an obsolete
technology. Clever.

It should be clear to anyone that follows technology issues that digital
EVERYTHING has a tendency to replace its analog counterparts. The only
reason digital photography hasn't yet dealt the final death blow to film is
that film still generally has the edge on dynamic range, and slightly (MF
anyway) better resolution for large enlargements. As sensor technology
improves , that film advantage is rapidly disappearing at a rate predicted
by Moore's Law and it's only a matter of a few years before film becomes the
province of a few hobbyists and some hold-out chemical curmudgeons. Film,
film cameras, and lenses aren't ever going to get any better than they are
now, but digital sensors obviously will.

Film is not dead. Yet. But it is definitely coughing up blood.

HMc